Wall St. Drifts Ahead of Earnings, Fed 04/29 13:02

   U.S. stocks are drifting higher Monday as Wall Street readies for a week 
packed with potentially market-moving reports.

   NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stocks are drifting higher Monday as Wall Street 
readies for a week packed with potentially market-moving reports.

   The S&P 500 was up 0.4% in afternoon trading, coming off its best week since 
November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 153 points, or 0.4%, as of 
1:50 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.5% higher.

   This week will see about a third of all the companies in the S&P 500 
reporting how much profit they made during the first three months of the year. 
That includes such heavyweights as Amazon and Apple. So far reports have 
largely been better than expected, with roughly half the S&P 500's reports in, 
highlighted last week by Alphabet, Microsoft and others.

   Domino's Pizza added to the pile Monday, reporting stronger-than-expected 
results thanks to a second straight quarter of rising orders for deliveries and 
carryout. Its stock steamed 5.4% higher.

   Tesla was also a big force pushing the market higher and jumped 15.9%. Its 
CEO, Elon Musk, met with a high-ranking Chinese official as it tries to rev up 
sales in the world's largest automobile market.

   They helped to offset a 10.1% drop for SoFi Technologies. The financial 
services company reported better results for the latest quarter than analysts 
expected, but its forecast for net income in the current quarter fell short.

   Solid earnings reports last week helped the S&P 500 rally to its first 
winning week in four. The companies in the index look to be on track to report 
overall growth of 3.5% in earnings per share from a year earlier, according to 
FactSet.

   The stock market will need such strength to steady it following what's been 
a rough April. The S&P 500 fell as much as 5.5% during the month as signals of 
stubbornly high inflation forced traders to ratchet back expectations for when 
the Federal Reserve could begin easing interest rates.

   After coming into the year forecasting six or more cuts to rates this year, 
traders are now placing many bets on just one, according to data from CME Group.

   When the Federal Reserve announces its latest policy decision on Wednesday, 
no one expects it to move its main interest rate, which is sitting at its 
highest level since 2001. Instead, the hope is that the central bank could 
offer some clues about when the first cut to rates could come.

   This week's Fed meeting won't include the publication of forecasts by Fed 
officials about where they see rates heading in upcoming years. The last such 
set of forecasts, released in March, showed the typical Fed official at the 
time was penciling in three cuts for 2024.

   But Fed Chair Jerome Powell could offer more color in his press conference 
following the central bank's decision. He suggested earlier this month that 
rates may stay high for longer because the Fed is waiting for more evidence 
that inflation is heading sustainably down toward its 2% target.

   A consequential report hitting Wall Street on Friday could shift policy 
makers' outlook even more. Economists expect Friday's jobs report to show that 
hiring by U.S. employers cooled in April and that growth in workers' wages held 
relatively steady.

   Wall Street is in an awkward position, where the hope is that the job market 
remains strong enough to help the economy avoid a recession but not so strong 
that it feeds upward pressure into inflation.

   Because inflation has been hotter than forecast and because the economy has 
remained so resilient, economists at BNP Paribas recently pushed out their 
forecast for when the Fed's first rate cut could come.

   They had been forecasting a July cut, but they said punting to September may 
prove to be uncomfortably close to the U.S. presidential election in November. 
So they're now calling for the Fed to make its first cut in December.

   Not only would the Fed want to avoid looking like it wants to affect the 
election's outcome, the November election could also result in significant 
changes in policy that affect where the economy and inflation are heading, 
according to the BNP Paribas team, led by Andy Schneider.

   "Even if the economy evolves so as to justify a cut by September, we think 
these risks likely outweigh whatever marginal economic benefits might come 
from" cutting just ahead of the election, they said.

   A large part of the rally to records for U.S. stocks since late October was 
built on expectations for coming cuts to interest rates, which relax the 
pressure on the economy and typically goose prices for investments. If they 
don't arrive, the stock market could feel even more downward pressure.

   In markets abroad, Japan's stock market was closed for a holiday. But the 
Japanese yen continues to swing sharply. It has fallen back to where it was 
against the U.S. dollar in 1990. The sharp drop has raised speculation about 
whether Japanese officials will make moves to prop up the yen. The Bank of 
Japan left its main interest rate alone on Friday.

   In other markets, stock indexes rose across much of Asia while remaining 
mixed in Europe.

   In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.62% from 
4.67% late Friday.